Expectedvalue https://expectedvalue.co.uk Expectedvalue - Latest articles and updates en-gb Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:39:42 GMT Thinking in Probabilities: Why Your Brain Is Bad at Risk https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/thinking-in-probabilities https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/thinking-in-probabilities Wed, 22 Apr 2026 14:42:11 GMT Your brain systematically misjudges probability. Learn about the cognitive biases that distort risk perception and practical techniques for better calibration. cognitive biases probability decision-making calibration risk behavioural economics The Kelly Criterion: How to Size Your Bets Optimally https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/kelly-criterion-optimal-bet-sizing https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/kelly-criterion-optimal-bet-sizing Wed, 22 Apr 2026 14:42:11 GMT The Kelly Criterion tells you exactly how much to stake when you have an edge. Learn the formula, see worked examples, and understand why fractional Kelly beats full Kelly in practice. kelly criterion bet sizing bankroll management investing probability risk management Expected Value Explained: The Most Important Concept in Decision-Making https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/expected-value-explained https://expectedvalue.co.uk/blog/expected-value-explained Wed, 22 Apr 2026 14:42:11 GMT Learn how expected value calculations can transform your decisions about investing, insurance, career moves, and everyday choices. The maths is simpler than you think. expected value decision-making probability investing risk